Saudi Arabia: Removing the Pillars of State

The modern state of Saudi Arabia was born from the conquests of Abdul Aziz ibn Saud in the first quarter of the twentieth century. This desert warrior took possession of most of Arabia, including the two holiest cities of Islam, Mecca and Medina. If such a tide of conquest had been continued, Abdul Aziz would inevitably have come into conflict with Britain and France, the two dominant colonial powers in the Middle East in those years.

However, Abdul Aziz was one of those rare leaders who accepted Bismarck's observation that political genius consists of knowing when to stop. When the most militant of his warriors seemed likely to attack British territory, Abdul Aziz crushed them and in future followed a policy of living in peace with his neighbours. He even welcomed a new great power, the United States, to the Middle East as a counter-weight to the British and French, and soon after the formal creation of Saudi Arabia in 1932, American geologists found the vast oil reserves that have enriched the country ever since.

Having given up wars of conquest, Abdul Aziz founded his new state on three pillars: consensus, conservatism, and caution. Abdul Aziz died in 1953, but all his sons who have ruled Saudi Arabia since then upheld those pillars of state - until now. Since 2015 Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), son of the current king Salman and as crown prince already de facto ruler of the country, has begun revolutionary changes in Saudi Arabia which threaten to undermine the pillars of state created by Abdul Aziz.

First is consensus. This does not of course mean consensus among the population of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi kingdom is no democracy, nor is MBS going to make it one. He seems to be modelling himself on the 'enlightened despots' of eighteenth century Europe. Rulers such as Joseph II of Austria and Catherine the Great of Russia sought to reform and modernise their countries without giving away any of their own absolute power. These were to be revolutions from the top down, carefully managed so that the autocrats stayed in control.

Consensus in Saudi Arabia has always meant consensus among the members of the ruling House of Saud. Up to now this system has worked remarkably well. Troublesome members of the ruling house have been passed over for the crown or removed from the throne if they threatened to endanger political stability. MBS has totally destroyed this family consensus. He has successfully grabbed all power for himself, and rival Saudi princes appear too shocked and weak to put up any effective opposition. Once the ruler of Saudi Arabia was just the chairman of the family board of management - now MBS is sole ruler.

The second pillar, conservatism, largely means religious conservatism. Saudi Arabia has no political constitution because the Koran serves that function and the interpreters of the Koran are the Wahhabi Muslim clerics who have long supported the House of Saud. These Sunni Muslim religious leaders have a powerful voice in all political, judicial, and social affairs in the kingdom. Unlike the Shia Muslim clerics in Iran, the Wahhabis have no desire to actually run the country, but they do expect the Saudi ruler to uphold their conservative brand of Islam at home and abroad. So far MBS has avoided a direct confrontation with the Wahhabi clerics, and only those viewed as 'extremist' have been arrested, supposedly as part of the campaign against Islamist terrorism. However, as modernisation of the Saudi state will necessarily involve increased Westernisation in many forms, a potentially explosive clash between MBS and the clerical hardliners must come at some point.

Finally comes caution. The House of Saud has previously moved cautiously in both internal and foreign affairs, but MBS seems determined to take risky policy initiatives in both areas almost as a matter of course. Since 2015 he has embarked on an apparently endless war in Yemen, has imposed a fairly pointless blockade on Qatar, and has openly interfered in the government of Lebanon. Now, if we are to believe Israeli sources, MBS is ready to take the most reckless step of all: to dump the Palestinian cause and join Israel in an anti-Iranian front. A more provocative action could scarcely be imagined in the Muslim world.

Consensus, conservatism, and caution have kept the House of Saud in control of Arabia for more than eighty years. They are the pillars of the state. MBS has now chosen to tear them down. Many commentators see him as moving too far too fast. One thing seems certain, if his modernising revolution fails, its failure will not only endanger him but the very existence of the Saudi Arabian state.