Turkey and the Gaza Flotilla: Empty Threats and Real Dangers

The recent Israeli attack on the peace flotilla seeking to break the Israeli-Egyptian blockade of the people of Gaza caused outrage around the world. Given that all those killed by the Israeli commandos were Turkish citizens, the reaction of Turkey was particularly strident. Commentators rushed to describe this incident as a turning point in the politics of the Middle East. Israel had lost the support of Turkey, its only Muslim ally in the region (although Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia remain as de facto allies of Israel at least in relation to Iran), and things could never be the same again.

In fact, like innumerable Israeli attacks in the past, the affair of the Gaza flotilla is following a very familiar path. The United States and its Western allies support Israel and the outrage expressed by Muslim states will not lead to any significant action against Israel. That the leading angry Muslim state this time is Turkey, NATO member and long-standing US ally, will make no difference.

As prime minister Netanyahu has said, as long as the United States supports Israel the Jewish state need not worry about the opinions of any other country on the planet. Turkey has called for the punishment of Israel and has demanded that the United States condemn Israeli actions. Neither of these demands is going to be met.

Lest it be thought that American indulgence towards Israeli belligerence is unique - a product of the supposed Zionist control of US foreign policy - one should consider the case of Thailand, another close ally of the United States.

Shortly before the attack on the Gaza flotilla, the Thai army crushed a populist protest movement that had set up camp in downtown Bangkok, killing at least seventy-five people and carrying out this repression in full view of the international media. If this action had occurred in Beijing or Tehran, the United States and its allies would have been loud in their expressions of outrage and condemnation. However, in the Thai case they made almost no comment, other than to advise their tourists to avoid the area. When the military forces of a close US ally behave brutally, Washington can be guaranteed to ignore such action.

This may be bad news for the current government of Turkey. The Turkish armed forces, like those of Thailand, have a long history of launching military coups against governments deemed to be insufficiently pro-American. Originally the democratic election of the current moderate Islamist government of Turkey, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was welcomed by the United States and its allies as a progressive step. Now their opinions may be changing.

Erdogan has not only denounced Israel's action against the flotilla, but he has also praised the Hamas party which controls Gaza as a Muslim resistance movement. Since Hamas is regarded as a terrorist group by the United States, Israel, and their allies, Erdogan may be fast losing his reputation as a moderate Islamist. His removal by a Turkish military coup, backed by the USA and Israel, may now be under consideration, but much will depend on whether Erdogan actually follows up his tough talk with action.

Despite all the rage and public demonstrations, it seems unlikely that Turkey will take any serious action against Israel, with which it has close economic and military ties. The Turkish armed forces have been very dependent on Israeli assistance in their recent efforts at military modernization. For example, while the USA has been reluctant to supply the Turkish military with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), Israel agreed to sell Turkey some of its Heron UAVs. The Turkish generals will not want to see this contract ended by a general severing of relations between the two countries. In the military sphere, Turkish retaliation against Israel will not go beyond the symbolic cancellation of a few joint military exercises.

Annual Turkish exports to Israel amount to two and a half billion dollars worth of goods, and Turkish businessmen will not want to lose that trade. Turkey also has a long-term contract to supply water to Israel and any attempt to end this would be seen as dangerously provocative. Israeli visitors are also important to Turkey's tourist industry, which would not wish to lose such income because of a politically-motivated ban on such visits.

Since the United States has clearly backed Israel rather than Turkey in the Gaza flotilla affair, will Erdogan retaliate against Washington as well? Suggestions have included the withdrawal of the Turkish military contingent from Afghanistan; the closing of the remaining American bases in Turkey; or even taking Turkey out of NATO completely. None of these things are likely to happen. Should it look as if even one of them was being contemplated by Erdogan, the Turkish generals would no doubt launch a coup with Washington's blessing.

All in all Erdogan's threats to both Israel and the United States are just empty rhetoric. Because they will have no serious consequences in the real world, such words merely invite Western contempt for being just ineffectual Muslim rage. Of course if Erdogan should try to back up his words with action, then he will face the real danger that his government will be overthrown by a military coup. Backed by the United States and Israel, the Turkish generals will no doubt welcome the opportunity to suppress the Islamist movement which has posed such a threat in recent years to the secular state established by Ataturk back in the 1920s.