A Wise Withdrawal or Eternal War?

The Christian Knights of Malta described their maritime conflict with the Muslims in the Mediterranean Sea as the 'eternal war'. It lasted from the arrival of the Knights of St. John of Jerusalem in Malta in 1530 until the island was seized by the French under Napoleon Bonaparte in 1798. If not quite 'eternal', a struggle lasting more than 250 years must certainly have seemed never-ending to successive generations of Christian knights and Muslim corsairs who engaged in the holy war at sea.

Since the events of September 11, 2001, the United States has embarked on an apparently never-ending struggle against Islamist terrorism. It is not an 'eternal war', merely a 'long war' according to American strategists. However, since they cannot say what a final conclusion of this conflict would look like, it seems their idea of 'long' may not be so very different from the 'eternal' struggle of the Knights of Malta. The knights could accept such an endless struggle because they regarded the clash between Christianity and Islam as a divinely sanctioned contest. A supposedly secular democracy like the United States cannot view the prospect of endless conflict in such a mystical way.

Despite the regular American denials that their struggle with Muslim terrorists is a war against Islam, few Muslims have any confidence in such assertions. Muslims are no different from the rest of humanity. They judge Americans by what they do, not by what they say. Almost 250,000 US military personnel are waging war within the Islamic world, yet no Muslim nation poses the slightest threat to the United States. Americans protest that they are only fighting a small minority of Muslim extremists, but those extremists could not exist if they did not receive at least tacit support from a significant proportion of the world's Muslims. They receive that support precisely because the USA and other Western powers have invaded the Islamic world on their mission of vengeance for 9/11.

Now that Osama bin Laden, the supposed evil genius behind the 9/11 atrocities, is dead, President Barack Hussein Obama has an ideal opportunity to change this situation. The killing of bin Laden gives him the opportunity to declare victory and bring the bulk of American military forces home from the Islamic world. That military presence has been one of the main reasons for Muslim hostility to America. The Arab revolt of 2011 shows that new forces, mostly not linked to Islamist extremism, are at work in the Muslim world. If most US forces are brought home and a reasonable settlement is agreed over the issue of Palestine, then the Islamist terrorists will have lost the principal grievances that have given them any wider credibility among Muslims.

President Obama must complete the promised US withdrawal from Iraq by the end of this year. He must also expedite the removal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan. These two withdrawals will not mean the end of a US military presence in the greater Middle East, but it will be restricted to naval forces in the Gulf and elsewhere, which will be much less provocative to Muslims than boots on the ground in their own countries. As well as actual aircraft carriers, the United States will also still have its 'unsinkable aircraft carrier' the state of Israel to act as regional policeman on its behalf.

Not only would large-scale military withdrawals end local support for Islamist militants, but they would also benefit the steadily declining economy of the USA. Foreign wars have been a major cause of the US government's increasing indebtedness. Dollars spent on bombing Afghanistan would be better spent on improving health facilities for American citizens at home.

This policy of wise withdrawal would be of infinite benefit to the United States and its people, but it seems unlikely to happen. After Augustus Rome was an empire which still retained the trappings of a republic. Similarly, since Franklin D. Roosevelt was president, the USA has been an empire while still insisting that it remains a republic. Once the Roman eagle was planted on foreign territory, the emperor would lose prestige if it was removed. The Americans take a similar view, believing, like the Romans, that they are the guarantors of world order and that any step backwards can only undermine international security.

Other past empires have taken a similar view. In the sixteenth century the rulers of the Spanish empire refused to grant independence to their rebellious provinces in the Netherlands. They believed that any withdrawal would undermine the image of omnipotent Spanish power. For eighty years the Spanish fought to subdue the Dutch. However, in the mid-seventeenth century a bankrupt Spain finally had to accept the reality of Dutch independence. While Spain was bogged down in this long war, its rivals, such as England and France, grew steadily in power and influence. Today powers like Russia and China are not unhappy to see the USA squandering blood and treasure on conflicts in the Islamic world which can only sap its strength.

If the United States chooses to continue its wars in the Islamic world, its burdens and losses can only increase. The Sadrists have already threatened a new war against US forces in Iraq if they do not complete their withdrawal from that country by the end of 2011. The deadline for US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan is regularly extended, most recently to 2014, but many Americans seem to want a permanent occupation of the country. The death of Osama bin Laden is totally irrelevant to the war in Afghanistan. The Taliban have fought the infidel invaders of Afghanistan for the last ten years; they can continue that struggle for another ten years if necessary. Most alarmingly, the rapidly deteriorating relations between the USA and Pakistan may lead to open warfare between the Americans and the world's second most populous Muslim state.

Assassinations are always striking events, but whether they have much long-term significance is open to doubt. In 1584 an assassin killed William, prince of Orange (also called William the Silent), the principal leader of the Dutch rebels, after the Spanish offered a large financial reward for his murder. This event did nothing to end the Dutch revolt against Spanish rule, and the struggle between the two sides continued for decades. The death of Osama bin Laden is similarly unlikely to have much long-term impact on America's wars in the Muslim world.

President Obama has a simple choice. He can recognize the limits of US imperial power and withdraw most American military forces from the Islamic world. Or he can continue and extend the conflicts carried on by those forces, reinforcing the new 'eternal war' which can only end with the national bankruptcy of the USA.