How Jihadist States End: The Mahdists and ISIS
When the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) was set up in the summer of 2014 it was the first jihadist political entity since the Mahdist state which controlled Sudan between 1885 and 1898.
The Mahdist state ended when its army was slaughtered by forces under Britain's General Kitchener at the battle of Omdurman on 2 September 1898, almost 118 years ago. This was a decisive victory from which the Mahdists never recovered. As anti-ISIS forces advance on Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq today, it seems the state ruled by ISIS will perish not in some great climactic battle but in protracted and bloody street fighting among urban ruins. Yet it remains doubtful whether the end of the jihadist state will mean the end of ISIS terrorist activities.
Ruled by Egypt since 1820, the inhabitants of Sudan exploited the turmoil caused by the British occupation of Egypt in 1882 to regain their freedom. Their leader was Muhammad Ahmad, who claimed to be the Mahdi, the Islamic messiah who would come to deliver Muslims from oppression. Initially the British were ready to give up Sudan and sent General Gordon to evacuate the last Egyptian forces from the country. However, Gordon decided to oppose the Mahdi and ended up besieged in Khartoum. Reluctantly the British government sent a small army to save Gordon, but at the start of 1885 the Mahdists stormed Khartoum and killed the general. For the moment the British withdrew from Sudan, but this blow to British imperial prestige would not be forgotten.
The Mahdi died only six months after Gordon, but Abdallahi ibn Muhammad took his place, being known as the Khalifa (caliph or successor). Mahdist Sudan was an Islamic fundamentalist state, but its efforts to spread its influence into other countries were largely unsuccessful. Expeditions against both Egypt and Ethiopia were defeated, and in 1896 General Kitchener led a British army into Sudan, intent on destroying the Mahdist state and avenging Gordon. Logistical problems initially proved more of an obstacle than Mahdist resistance, but Kitchener's slow and methodical advance down the River Nile never faltered. In September 1898 the invaders finally reached the Mahdist capital of Omdurman and the Khalifa decided to risk everything in a major battle. Unfortunately religious fanaticism was no match for artillery and machine guns. The Mahdists were slaughtered and their state was at an end, with the Khalifa being killed during mopping up operations in 1899. The Mahdist challenge had been totally crushed and Anglo-Egyptian rule in the Sudan would continue largely undisturbed until the country finally became independent in 1956.
Exploiting civil war in Syria and internal turmoil in Iraq, ISIS set up its state in the summer of 2014. Its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was not presumptuous enough to call himself the Mahdi, but he did claim the title of caliph (successor to the Prophet Muhammad). Taking the name Caliph Ibrahim, he claimed to rule the world's Muslims and imposed an Islamic fundamentalist regime on the territories he controlled in Syria and Iraq. The Mahdists were left alone for some years to consolidate their control of Sudan, but almost as soon as it came into being, ISIS was under attack from its enemies. The USA and its allies have been carrying out air attacks on ISIS positions and America's local proxies have been making steady, if slow, progress in driving ISIS forces from towns in both Syria and Iraq. Raqqa and Mosul, the last remaining major ISIS-held cities, seem likely to be the final combat zones for the movement, scenes of brutal urban conflict rather than a final great battle.
However, by the terms of its own ideology, ISIS is committed to one final apocalyptic battle. It claims that at Dabiq (near Aleppo in Syria) the forces of Islam, with the Mahdi among their leaders, will defeat the forces of 'Rome' and win dominion over the world. (Dabiq is also the name of the movement's online magazine.) Even if such an encounter were to take place, the result would only be a new Omdurman, with 'Roman' (Western) firepower slaughtering the Islamic militants.
However the ISIS state ends, will its demise be as complete as that of the Mahdist state in Sudan in 1898? There were no Mahdist militants carrying out terror attacks in Victorian London as General Kitchener closed in on Omdurman. ISIS can launch or inspire terrorist attacks in Western cities even as its hold on towns in Syria and Iraq begins to crumble.
The battle of Omdurman marked the definite end of the Mahdist state in Sudan, but the end of the state controlled by ISIS will not be the end of the struggle. ISIS-linked groups are already fighting in Egypt, Libya, and Afghanistan, and ISIS-inspired terrorists may pop up at any time in Western countries. Mahdist Sudan was a geographically limited phenomenon; ISIS can live on in other forms as a continuing global threat even after its state has disappeared.
