In 2009 Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi arrived in Rome for a state visit to Italy. Pinned to his uniform was a photograph of Omar Mukhtar, hero of the Libyan resistance to Italian imperialism. In 2011 the rebels fighting to overthrow Gaddafi named one of their military formations the 'Omar Mukhtar brigade'. Both sides in the current Libyan civil war claim Omar Mukhtar as their inspiration. He remains one of Libya's national heroes, the 'Lion of the Desert' who fought the Italian invaders for twenty years, until he was captured and executed by them in 1931.
The Italians had invaded Libya, then ruled by the Ottoman empire, in 1911. The Turks made peace in the following year and handed over the territory to Italy, but the native Muslim inhabitants refused to accept infidel rule. Their resistance struggle went on for more than two decades and Omar Mukhtar became its figurehead.
Today the victory of the NATO-backed Libyan rebels seems almost complete. Yet Muammar Gaddafi and his forces are still fighting, still resisting. Is it possible that he can go on resisting for years just as Omar Mukhtar did?
This seems unlikely since Gaddafi has few of the advantages which allowed Omar Mukhtar to carry on a guerrilla war for decades. These advantages were terrain, religious commitment, foreign support, and the distraction of his enemies.
Omar Mukhtar was a native of Cyrenaica, the north eastern region of Libya, and its difficult terrain provided hiding places for his guerrilla forces. Today Cyrenaica is completely hostile to Gaddafi and its principal city, Benghazi, served as the rebel capital until the liberation of Tripoli. It seems likely that Gaddafi will be driven out of his remaining strongholds near the Mediterranean coast and be forced southwards into the Sahara. There his forces will be even more vulnerable to NATO air attacks.
Omar Mukhtar was a member of the Senussi religious brotherhood, which enjoyed considerable support in North Africa and the wider Islamic world. Gaddafi has few supporters among the world's Muslims and he is regarded as a secular apostate by most Islamists, ranging from Al Qaeda to the House of Saud.
Omar Mukhtar's resistance struggle in Libya received the backing of neighbouring Egypt. Although the Egyptian government of the period was under British domination, the British had little interest in assisting their Italian imperial rivals. Gaddafi is not totally shunned by Libya's neighbours today. Algeria in particular is suspicious that the new NATO-backed Libyan regime is just a front for a revival of Western colonialism in North Africa. However, it seems unlikely that Algeria will give Gaddafi direct military assistance or provide him with a safe haven.
The initial Italian invasion led to the subjugation of most of Libya by 1913, but once Italy joined the First World War in 1915 the situation changed dramatically. Many Italian troops were withdrawn and the Libyan resistance took possession of most of the interior of the country. Even when Mussolini and his fascists came to power in Italy in 1922, Italian control of Libya was still largely restricted to a coastal strip. With no other distractions, Italian military conquest was renewed from 1925 onwards. However, it was only after General Rodolfo Graziani took charge in 1930 that Italian counter-insurgency efforts became truly effective. The rural inhabitants of Cyrenaica were driven into concentration camps; the Libya-Egypt border was sealed; and mobile columns, supported by aircraft, harassed the guerrillas relentlessly until Omar Mukhtar was captured and killed.
The First World War was a major distraction for the Italians. It gave the Libyan resistance a chance to regroup and reoccupy territory, setting back the Italian pacification of the country by perhaps a decade. Despite French president Sarkozy's remark that Syria may well be NATO's next target, it seems unlikely that the alliance will be distracted by a new war before it has finished its work in Libya. Gaddafi, unlike Omar Mukhtar, will not be given a chance to regroup his forces and regain ground. His defeat seems certain.
Yet only ten years ago commentators were making similar predictions about the Taliban in Afghanistan. Western military strategy in that country in late 2001 was very similar to the current strategy in Libya. The West would provide air power, while local forces, aided by a few Western special forces troops, would do most of the ground fighting against the enemy.
Unfortunately, the Taliban, supposedly crushed at the end of 2001, were to enjoy most of the advantages which allowed Omar Mukhtar to prolong his resistance in Libya. The Taliban found refuge in the rugged terrain of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border; they continued to enjoy support within the wider Islamic world; many in the political and military establishment of neighbouring Pakistan assisted their cause; and their main Western enemy, the USA, was distracted by a new war in Iraq from 2003 onwards.
These factors allowed the Taliban to survive their apparently crushing defeat in 2001. For the reasons already noted, Muammar Gaddafi does not seem to have those advantages and it seems unlikely that he can stave off final defeat for much longer.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Friday, August 19, 2011
Endgame in Libya: Back to Western Colonialism?
As the fall of Muamar Gadaffi seems increasingly inevitable, thoughts are turning to what kind of government the Libyan opposition will put in his place. Also worthy of consideration is how far the new Libya will fall under the sort of Western control that existed in the country before Gadaffi's revolution in 1969.
The United States, Britain and France, along with their NATO and other allies, have gone to considerable expense, in treasure rather than blood, to support the Libyan opposition and remove Gadaffi, despite having no United Nations mandate for regime change. Whatever their high-minded claims to be only acting to protect the Libyan people, they will now look for political and economic returns on their investment.
In 1943 the Italian colony of Libya was overrun by the British army. A British military administration was installed in Cyrenaica and Tripolitania, with the United States retaining use of various air bases. In the south of Libya, known as the Fezzan, French administrators were installed, running the area as an extension of France's existing North African colonies.
In 1949 the United Nations agreed that Libya should become an independent country, and in 1951 the kingdom of Libya came into being, ruled by King Idris. However, both Britain and the United States retained military bases in Libya.
Initially the bases brought much needed money into an impoverished country, but the situation changed after oil was discovered in Libya in 1959. With the French exit from Algeria in 1962, it seemed that Western colonialism in North Africa had come to an end. However, Western military bases remained in Libya until Gadaffi's bloodless coup in 1969.
In March 1970 the British gave up the RAF base at El Adem; in June the Americans left Wheelus air base; and in October Gadaffi expelled the last Italian settlers from Libya. For the next forty years Gadaffi would keep Libya firmly in the anti-Western camp in international affairs.
Now that Gadaffi seems on the verge of being consigned to the scrapheap of history, what spoils will be demanded by the victors? The Libyan opposition will set up a new government, but the NATO powers who backed the rebels will be the real victors.
Will the United States, Britain and France want new military bases in Libya? These would be useful to keep an eye on Egypt, where the new political setup after the fall of Mubarak still remains in flux. Canada has made its contribution to the NATO war effort against Gadaffi, and the Harper government has said it is looking to create a worldwide chain of Canadian military support bases. Might not Libya host one such base?
Military bases would probably be too provocative to certain sections of the Libyan opposition, especially the Islamists. Nevertheless it seems likely that the new, democratic Libya will quickly be overrun by Western civilian and military 'advisers', while Western oil companies and other businesses will be given economic opportunities in Libya that have largely been closed to them for the last forty years.
The new Libyan regime will have little choice but to give in to Western demands. After all, the West will only unfreeze Libya's financial assets held abroad if it gets a new Libyan government friendly to its interests. Whether this brave new world can be seen as a return to colonial exploitation by the West or as a boost for freedom and democracy in Libya depends on one's political viewpoint.
The United States, Britain and France, along with their NATO and other allies, have gone to considerable expense, in treasure rather than blood, to support the Libyan opposition and remove Gadaffi, despite having no United Nations mandate for regime change. Whatever their high-minded claims to be only acting to protect the Libyan people, they will now look for political and economic returns on their investment.
In 1943 the Italian colony of Libya was overrun by the British army. A British military administration was installed in Cyrenaica and Tripolitania, with the United States retaining use of various air bases. In the south of Libya, known as the Fezzan, French administrators were installed, running the area as an extension of France's existing North African colonies.
In 1949 the United Nations agreed that Libya should become an independent country, and in 1951 the kingdom of Libya came into being, ruled by King Idris. However, both Britain and the United States retained military bases in Libya.
Initially the bases brought much needed money into an impoverished country, but the situation changed after oil was discovered in Libya in 1959. With the French exit from Algeria in 1962, it seemed that Western colonialism in North Africa had come to an end. However, Western military bases remained in Libya until Gadaffi's bloodless coup in 1969.
In March 1970 the British gave up the RAF base at El Adem; in June the Americans left Wheelus air base; and in October Gadaffi expelled the last Italian settlers from Libya. For the next forty years Gadaffi would keep Libya firmly in the anti-Western camp in international affairs.
Now that Gadaffi seems on the verge of being consigned to the scrapheap of history, what spoils will be demanded by the victors? The Libyan opposition will set up a new government, but the NATO powers who backed the rebels will be the real victors.
Will the United States, Britain and France want new military bases in Libya? These would be useful to keep an eye on Egypt, where the new political setup after the fall of Mubarak still remains in flux. Canada has made its contribution to the NATO war effort against Gadaffi, and the Harper government has said it is looking to create a worldwide chain of Canadian military support bases. Might not Libya host one such base?
Military bases would probably be too provocative to certain sections of the Libyan opposition, especially the Islamists. Nevertheless it seems likely that the new, democratic Libya will quickly be overrun by Western civilian and military 'advisers', while Western oil companies and other businesses will be given economic opportunities in Libya that have largely been closed to them for the last forty years.
The new Libyan regime will have little choice but to give in to Western demands. After all, the West will only unfreeze Libya's financial assets held abroad if it gets a new Libyan government friendly to its interests. Whether this brave new world can be seen as a return to colonial exploitation by the West or as a boost for freedom and democracy in Libya depends on one's political viewpoint.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
A Wise Withdrawal or Eternal War?
The Christian Knights of Malta described their maritime conflict with the Muslims in the Mediterranean Sea as the 'eternal war'. It lasted from the arrival of the Knights of St. John of Jerusalem in Malta in 1530 until the island was seized by the French under Napoleon Bonaparte in 1798. If not quite 'eternal', a struggle lasting more than 250 years must certainly have seemed never-ending to successive generations of Christian knights and Muslim corsairs who engaged in the holy war at sea.
Since the events of September 11, 2001, the United States has embarked on an apparently never-ending struggle against Islamist terrorism. It is not an 'eternal war', merely a 'long war' according to American strategists. However, since they cannot say what a final conclusion of this conflict would look like, it seems their idea of 'long' may not be so very different from the 'eternal' struggle of the Knights of Malta. The knights could accept such an endless struggle because they regarded the clash between Christianity and Islam as a divinely sanctioned contest. A supposedly secular democracy like the United States cannot view the prospect of endless conflict in such a mystical way.
Despite the regular American denials that their struggle with Muslim terrorists is a war against Islam, few Muslims have any confidence in such assertions. Muslims are no different from the rest of humanity. They judge Americans by what they do, not by what they say. Almost 250,000 US military personnel are waging war within the Islamic world, yet no Muslim nation poses the slightest threat to the United States. Americans protest that they are only fighting a small minority of Muslim extremists, but those extremists could not exist if they did not receive at least tacit support from a significant proportion of the world's Muslims. They receive that support precisely because the USA and other Western powers have invaded the Islamic world on their mission of vengeance for 9/11.
Now that Osama bin Laden, the supposed evil genius behind the 9/11 atrocities, is dead, President Barack Hussein Obama has an ideal opportunity to change this situation. The killing of bin Laden gives him the opportunity to declare victory and bring the bulk of American military forces home from the Islamic world. That military presence has been one of the main reasons for Muslim hostility to America. The Arab revolt of 2011 shows that new forces, mostly not linked to Islamist extremism, are at work in the Muslim world. If most US forces are brought home and a reasonable settlement is agreed over the issue of Palestine, then the Islamist terrorists will have lost the principal grievances that have given them any wider credibility among Muslims.
President Obama must complete the promised US withdrawal from Iraq by the end of this year. He must also expedite the removal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan. These two withdrawals will not mean the end of a US military presence in the greater Middle East, but it will be restricted to naval forces in the Gulf and elsewhere, which will be much less provocative to Muslims than boots on the ground in their own countries. As well as actual aircraft carriers, the United States will also still have its 'unsinkable aircraft carrier' the state of Israel to act as regional policeman on its behalf.
Not only would large-scale military withdrawals end local support for Islamist militants, but they would also benefit the steadily declining economy of the USA. Foreign wars have been a major cause of the US government's increasing indebtedness. Dollars spent on bombing Afghanistan would be better spent on improving health facilities for American citizens at home.
This policy of wise withdrawal would be of infinite benefit to the United States and its people, but it seems unlikely to happen. After Augustus Rome was an empire which still retained the trappings of a republic. Similarly, since Franklin D. Roosevelt was president, the USA has been an empire while still insisting that it remains a republic. Once the Roman eagle was planted on foreign territory, the emperor would lose prestige if it was removed. The Americans take a similar view, believing, like the Romans, that they are the guarantors of world order and that any step backwards can only undermine international security.
Other past empires have taken a similar view. In the sixteenth century the rulers of the Spanish empire refused to grant independence to their rebellious provinces in the Netherlands. They believed that any withdrawal would undermine the image of omnipotent Spanish power. For eighty years the Spanish fought to subdue the Dutch. However, in the mid-seventeenth century a bankrupt Spain finally had to accept the reality of Dutch independence. While Spain was bogged down in this long war, its rivals, such as England and France, grew steadily in power and influence. Today powers like Russia and China are not unhappy to see the USA squandering blood and treasure on conflicts in the Islamic world which can only sap its strength.
If the United States chooses to continue its wars in the Islamic world, its burdens and losses can only increase. The Sadrists have already threatened a new war against US forces in Iraq if they do not complete their withdrawal from that country by the end of 2011. The deadline for US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan is regularly extended, most recently to 2014, but many Americans seem to want a permanent occupation of the country. The death of Osama bin Laden is totally irrelevant to the war in Afghanistan. The Taliban have fought the infidel invaders of Afghanistan for the last ten years; they can continue that struggle for another ten years if necessary. Most alarmingly, the rapidly deteriorating relations between the USA and Pakistan may lead to open warfare between the Americans and the world's second most populous Muslim state.
Assassinations are always striking events, but whether they have much long-term significance is open to doubt. In 1584 an assassin killed William, prince of Orange (also called William the Silent), the principal leader of the Dutch rebels, after the Spanish offered a large financial reward for his murder. This event did nothing to end the Dutch revolt against Spanish rule, and the struggle between the two sides continued for decades. The death of Osama bin Laden is similarly unlikely to have much long-term impact on America's wars in the Muslim world.
President Obama has a simple choice. He can recognize the limits of US imperial power and withdraw most American military forces from the Islamic world. Or he can continue and extend the conflicts carried on by those forces, reinforcing the new 'eternal war' which can only end with the national bankruptcy of the USA.
Since the events of September 11, 2001, the United States has embarked on an apparently never-ending struggle against Islamist terrorism. It is not an 'eternal war', merely a 'long war' according to American strategists. However, since they cannot say what a final conclusion of this conflict would look like, it seems their idea of 'long' may not be so very different from the 'eternal' struggle of the Knights of Malta. The knights could accept such an endless struggle because they regarded the clash between Christianity and Islam as a divinely sanctioned contest. A supposedly secular democracy like the United States cannot view the prospect of endless conflict in such a mystical way.
Despite the regular American denials that their struggle with Muslim terrorists is a war against Islam, few Muslims have any confidence in such assertions. Muslims are no different from the rest of humanity. They judge Americans by what they do, not by what they say. Almost 250,000 US military personnel are waging war within the Islamic world, yet no Muslim nation poses the slightest threat to the United States. Americans protest that they are only fighting a small minority of Muslim extremists, but those extremists could not exist if they did not receive at least tacit support from a significant proportion of the world's Muslims. They receive that support precisely because the USA and other Western powers have invaded the Islamic world on their mission of vengeance for 9/11.
Now that Osama bin Laden, the supposed evil genius behind the 9/11 atrocities, is dead, President Barack Hussein Obama has an ideal opportunity to change this situation. The killing of bin Laden gives him the opportunity to declare victory and bring the bulk of American military forces home from the Islamic world. That military presence has been one of the main reasons for Muslim hostility to America. The Arab revolt of 2011 shows that new forces, mostly not linked to Islamist extremism, are at work in the Muslim world. If most US forces are brought home and a reasonable settlement is agreed over the issue of Palestine, then the Islamist terrorists will have lost the principal grievances that have given them any wider credibility among Muslims.
President Obama must complete the promised US withdrawal from Iraq by the end of this year. He must also expedite the removal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan. These two withdrawals will not mean the end of a US military presence in the greater Middle East, but it will be restricted to naval forces in the Gulf and elsewhere, which will be much less provocative to Muslims than boots on the ground in their own countries. As well as actual aircraft carriers, the United States will also still have its 'unsinkable aircraft carrier' the state of Israel to act as regional policeman on its behalf.
Not only would large-scale military withdrawals end local support for Islamist militants, but they would also benefit the steadily declining economy of the USA. Foreign wars have been a major cause of the US government's increasing indebtedness. Dollars spent on bombing Afghanistan would be better spent on improving health facilities for American citizens at home.
This policy of wise withdrawal would be of infinite benefit to the United States and its people, but it seems unlikely to happen. After Augustus Rome was an empire which still retained the trappings of a republic. Similarly, since Franklin D. Roosevelt was president, the USA has been an empire while still insisting that it remains a republic. Once the Roman eagle was planted on foreign territory, the emperor would lose prestige if it was removed. The Americans take a similar view, believing, like the Romans, that they are the guarantors of world order and that any step backwards can only undermine international security.
Other past empires have taken a similar view. In the sixteenth century the rulers of the Spanish empire refused to grant independence to their rebellious provinces in the Netherlands. They believed that any withdrawal would undermine the image of omnipotent Spanish power. For eighty years the Spanish fought to subdue the Dutch. However, in the mid-seventeenth century a bankrupt Spain finally had to accept the reality of Dutch independence. While Spain was bogged down in this long war, its rivals, such as England and France, grew steadily in power and influence. Today powers like Russia and China are not unhappy to see the USA squandering blood and treasure on conflicts in the Islamic world which can only sap its strength.
If the United States chooses to continue its wars in the Islamic world, its burdens and losses can only increase. The Sadrists have already threatened a new war against US forces in Iraq if they do not complete their withdrawal from that country by the end of 2011. The deadline for US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan is regularly extended, most recently to 2014, but many Americans seem to want a permanent occupation of the country. The death of Osama bin Laden is totally irrelevant to the war in Afghanistan. The Taliban have fought the infidel invaders of Afghanistan for the last ten years; they can continue that struggle for another ten years if necessary. Most alarmingly, the rapidly deteriorating relations between the USA and Pakistan may lead to open warfare between the Americans and the world's second most populous Muslim state.
Assassinations are always striking events, but whether they have much long-term significance is open to doubt. In 1584 an assassin killed William, prince of Orange (also called William the Silent), the principal leader of the Dutch rebels, after the Spanish offered a large financial reward for his murder. This event did nothing to end the Dutch revolt against Spanish rule, and the struggle between the two sides continued for decades. The death of Osama bin Laden is similarly unlikely to have much long-term impact on America's wars in the Muslim world.
President Obama has a simple choice. He can recognize the limits of US imperial power and withdraw most American military forces from the Islamic world. Or he can continue and extend the conflicts carried on by those forces, reinforcing the new 'eternal war' which can only end with the national bankruptcy of the USA.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Libya and the Limits of Air Power
Almost a century ago, the use of aircraft in military combat was initiated during the Italian invasion of Libya, which was then part of the Ottoman Turkish empire.
On the first day of November 1911 Italian officer Lt. Giulio Gavotti dropped a small bomb from a German-built Etrich Taube aircraft. Its effects on the Ottoman Turkish troops on the ground in Libya remain unknown, but this first aerial bombing raid opened the age of military air power.
In 1912 the Ottoman government made peace with Italy and handed over Libya to become an Italian colony. However, the local Arabs decided to continue their resistance to infidel invasion. After the massive growth of air power during the First World War, Mussolini's fascists made a greater use of aircraft in Italian counter-insurgency operations in Libya during the 1920s. As well as ordinary munitions, the aircraft were also alleged to have dropped poison gas bombs on the Libyans.
In 1931 the principal Libyan resistance leader, Omar Mukhtar, was captured by the Italians and executed. By 1934 the last insurgents had been defeated and Italy finally had complete control of the country. Air power had played a significant role in the Italian victory, but the activities of soldiers on the ground were still more important.
The Italians used air power to subject the Libyan people to European imperialism. Today the Western powers claim to be using air power to free the Libyan people from the oppressive rule of Muammar Gadaffi.
The destructive power that can be inflicted by aircraft is now vastly greater than it was at the birth of military air power back in 1911. Nevertheless, it may be asked whether the impact of such power is likely to be any more decisive in Libya today than it was a century ago.
The NATO interpretation of the United Nations resolution allowing military action to protect Libyan civilians allows its aircraft to destroy Gadaffi's aircraft and ground weapons such as tanks and artillery. However, both British and French government ministers have openly talked of overthrowing the Gadaffi regime, while American officials have hinted that such an outcome is desirable. Regime change is not mentioned in the UN resolution, and there are considerable doubts whether it can be achieved by air power alone.
After some initial enthusiasm, the United States government now seems to want to take only a supporting role in the air operations in Libya. Air attacks will largely be left to other NATO countries, especially France and Britain. Yet the United States is the only world-class air power. If it declines to take a leading role in the air assault on Libya, the impact of that assault can only be weakened.
France can deploy significant air assets from both its air force and its navy, but Britain's air force is in a weakened condition due to misguided defence cuts and the same cuts have virtually destroyed the country's naval air component. In real terms Britain's air contribution in Libya will not be much greater than that of Canada and other lesser NATO military powers.
Even if the United States decides to reverse its policy and takes the leading role in air operations in Libya. can these operations achieve their stated goals? In 1999 NATO waged an air campaign against Yugoslavia to protect the oppressed people of Kosovo. It was supposed to bring the Yugoslavs to the negotiating table within days. Then the days turned into weeks and the weeks into months, but still the Yugoslavs remained defiant in face of the biggest air assault in Europe since the Second World War. Only the threat of a NATO land invasion of Kosovo brought Slobodan Milosevic to terms.
Will Libya be a repeat of Kosovo? It seems a distinct possibility. There have been the usual promises of no NATO 'boots on the ground' in Libya, but if the air campaign cannot defeat Gadaffi, what other course will be open if the removal of his regime remains the declared intention of the Western attackers? A stalemate which leads to a divided Libya is said to be unacceptable, but only ground forces can ensure the fall of the Gadaffi regime. The forces of the Libyan rebels are too weak to do this, so NATO troops must at some point go ashore in Libya.
Military air power was born in Libya in 1911, but almost a hundred years later it is still unable to win a war in that country all by itself. Only military intervention can bring down the Gadaffi regime. How will the Islamic world react to yet another Western invasion of a Muslim country? And how long will it take NATO to subdue Libya? It took the Italians almost a quarter of a century. NATO will no doubt expect a shorter campaign, but its apparently endless struggle in Afghanistan is not an encouraging precedent.
On the first day of November 1911 Italian officer Lt. Giulio Gavotti dropped a small bomb from a German-built Etrich Taube aircraft. Its effects on the Ottoman Turkish troops on the ground in Libya remain unknown, but this first aerial bombing raid opened the age of military air power.
In 1912 the Ottoman government made peace with Italy and handed over Libya to become an Italian colony. However, the local Arabs decided to continue their resistance to infidel invasion. After the massive growth of air power during the First World War, Mussolini's fascists made a greater use of aircraft in Italian counter-insurgency operations in Libya during the 1920s. As well as ordinary munitions, the aircraft were also alleged to have dropped poison gas bombs on the Libyans.
In 1931 the principal Libyan resistance leader, Omar Mukhtar, was captured by the Italians and executed. By 1934 the last insurgents had been defeated and Italy finally had complete control of the country. Air power had played a significant role in the Italian victory, but the activities of soldiers on the ground were still more important.
The Italians used air power to subject the Libyan people to European imperialism. Today the Western powers claim to be using air power to free the Libyan people from the oppressive rule of Muammar Gadaffi.
The destructive power that can be inflicted by aircraft is now vastly greater than it was at the birth of military air power back in 1911. Nevertheless, it may be asked whether the impact of such power is likely to be any more decisive in Libya today than it was a century ago.
The NATO interpretation of the United Nations resolution allowing military action to protect Libyan civilians allows its aircraft to destroy Gadaffi's aircraft and ground weapons such as tanks and artillery. However, both British and French government ministers have openly talked of overthrowing the Gadaffi regime, while American officials have hinted that such an outcome is desirable. Regime change is not mentioned in the UN resolution, and there are considerable doubts whether it can be achieved by air power alone.
After some initial enthusiasm, the United States government now seems to want to take only a supporting role in the air operations in Libya. Air attacks will largely be left to other NATO countries, especially France and Britain. Yet the United States is the only world-class air power. If it declines to take a leading role in the air assault on Libya, the impact of that assault can only be weakened.
France can deploy significant air assets from both its air force and its navy, but Britain's air force is in a weakened condition due to misguided defence cuts and the same cuts have virtually destroyed the country's naval air component. In real terms Britain's air contribution in Libya will not be much greater than that of Canada and other lesser NATO military powers.
Even if the United States decides to reverse its policy and takes the leading role in air operations in Libya. can these operations achieve their stated goals? In 1999 NATO waged an air campaign against Yugoslavia to protect the oppressed people of Kosovo. It was supposed to bring the Yugoslavs to the negotiating table within days. Then the days turned into weeks and the weeks into months, but still the Yugoslavs remained defiant in face of the biggest air assault in Europe since the Second World War. Only the threat of a NATO land invasion of Kosovo brought Slobodan Milosevic to terms.
Will Libya be a repeat of Kosovo? It seems a distinct possibility. There have been the usual promises of no NATO 'boots on the ground' in Libya, but if the air campaign cannot defeat Gadaffi, what other course will be open if the removal of his regime remains the declared intention of the Western attackers? A stalemate which leads to a divided Libya is said to be unacceptable, but only ground forces can ensure the fall of the Gadaffi regime. The forces of the Libyan rebels are too weak to do this, so NATO troops must at some point go ashore in Libya.
Military air power was born in Libya in 1911, but almost a hundred years later it is still unable to win a war in that country all by itself. Only military intervention can bring down the Gadaffi regime. How will the Islamic world react to yet another Western invasion of a Muslim country? And how long will it take NATO to subdue Libya? It took the Italians almost a quarter of a century. NATO will no doubt expect a shorter campaign, but its apparently endless struggle in Afghanistan is not an encouraging precedent.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
A New Arab World or 1848 Revisited?
As popular revolution continues to sweep the Arab world, commentators have searched for comparisons with earlier revolutionary outbreaks in history. One choice has been the revolutions of 1848 in Europe.
In a few short months in that year a wave of liberal and democratic revolution swept across western and central Europe, touching states in France, Germany, Italy, and Austria. In a few places rulers lost their thrones, such as King Louis Philippe in France, but in all the places touched by the revolutionary flame, the old regime had to make rapid concessions to the demands of the revolutionaries, even in reactionary Prussia and Austria.
However, just as the waves of the sea rapidly lose their force as they sweep across the beach, so the revolutionary fervour of 1848, seemingly so irresistible, soon began to dissipate. By 1850 most of the concessions which the revolutionaries had won from the old regime had been lost. The reactionaries were back in control almost everywhere. The revolutionaries of 1848 had lacked strong leadership, clear aims, and adequate military force. It proved all too easy for their enemies to exploit the divisions among them, whether political or racial.
France had been the first country to begin the revolutionary outbreak in 1848, but even in the summer of that year, the conservative elements among the new regime were shooting down the workers in Paris. Louis Napoleon, nephew of the great Napoleon, was made president of the new French republic, but within a few years he had seized power and turned himself into Emperor Napoleon III, although still claiming to be a 'liberal' emperor.
The state which seemed doomed by the impact of the 1848 revolutionary wave was the multi-national Austrian empire. Young emperor Franz Josef had only just entered into his inheritance, but now it seemed he would lose it all, as revolutions broke out in Vienna, Prague, Budapest, and in his Italian possessions. Yet he was to survive these upheavals thanks to the loyalty of most of the imperial army, the exploitation of racial divisions among the revolutionary groups, and the intervention of a foreign army sent by the arch reactionary Tsar Nicholas I of Russia to help the Austrians crush the most serious revolt in Hungary. By 1850 the Austrian empire was back under the control of the government of Franz Josef, and he would remain emperor until his death in 1916.
Of course a historical comparison between events today in the Arab world and those in Europe more than 150 years ago cannot be carried too far. Nevertheless it seems not unlikely that the Arab revolutions will produce more sound and fury than lasting political change. Although leaders like Ben Ali and Mubarak have been driven out, the military and most of the old regime politicians largely remain in control of states like Tunisia and Egypt. Even Muammar Gaddafi may emulate Franz Josef and emerge victorious from a seemingly impossible situation. The emperor was in large part saved by foreign intervention; Gaddafi may be saved by a failure of the international community to intervene in support of the revolutionaries in Libya.
If the current Arab revolutionary wave does collapse like that of 1848, what will this mean for the West? Trying to make up for their decades of support for Arab dictators, Westerners have been shrill in their praise for the popular uprisings in the Arab world, although these words have not been followed by any action. If the much-trumpeted 'new Arab world' fails to emerge and the old regime withdraws its concessions and largely resumes power, will not the Arab people be disillusioned and even more angry? Despite the claims of some alarmist commentators, radical Islamists have not featured greatly in the present revolutionary outbreaks. However, if the promises of freedom and democracy for the Arab masses are not met, then angry young Arabs are going to be much more receptive to the anti-Western message of Islamic militants.
Words and no action from the West may turn the new Arab revolutionaries against the United States and its allies, but will a restoration of the old regime do the West much good either? The Arab dictators consider, not unreasonably, that they have been deserted by their former Western supporters in their hour of need. If the groups that supported the dictators, chiefly the military and the conservative politicians, manage to retain power in most of the Arab countries disturbed by revolution, will they ever trust the West again? Once the tame vassals of the United States and its allies, they seem more likely to take a more independent line in the future on issues such as Palestine, Lebanon, and Iran.
For Arabs, the current revolutionary movement may not in the end achieve any major lasting political changes. However, for the West its relations with the Arab world cannot help being substantially altered whichever side eventually emerges victorious. Neither the old regime nor the new revolutionaries are likely to trust the West when its words of support remain just empty promises.
In a few short months in that year a wave of liberal and democratic revolution swept across western and central Europe, touching states in France, Germany, Italy, and Austria. In a few places rulers lost their thrones, such as King Louis Philippe in France, but in all the places touched by the revolutionary flame, the old regime had to make rapid concessions to the demands of the revolutionaries, even in reactionary Prussia and Austria.
However, just as the waves of the sea rapidly lose their force as they sweep across the beach, so the revolutionary fervour of 1848, seemingly so irresistible, soon began to dissipate. By 1850 most of the concessions which the revolutionaries had won from the old regime had been lost. The reactionaries were back in control almost everywhere. The revolutionaries of 1848 had lacked strong leadership, clear aims, and adequate military force. It proved all too easy for their enemies to exploit the divisions among them, whether political or racial.
France had been the first country to begin the revolutionary outbreak in 1848, but even in the summer of that year, the conservative elements among the new regime were shooting down the workers in Paris. Louis Napoleon, nephew of the great Napoleon, was made president of the new French republic, but within a few years he had seized power and turned himself into Emperor Napoleon III, although still claiming to be a 'liberal' emperor.
The state which seemed doomed by the impact of the 1848 revolutionary wave was the multi-national Austrian empire. Young emperor Franz Josef had only just entered into his inheritance, but now it seemed he would lose it all, as revolutions broke out in Vienna, Prague, Budapest, and in his Italian possessions. Yet he was to survive these upheavals thanks to the loyalty of most of the imperial army, the exploitation of racial divisions among the revolutionary groups, and the intervention of a foreign army sent by the arch reactionary Tsar Nicholas I of Russia to help the Austrians crush the most serious revolt in Hungary. By 1850 the Austrian empire was back under the control of the government of Franz Josef, and he would remain emperor until his death in 1916.
Of course a historical comparison between events today in the Arab world and those in Europe more than 150 years ago cannot be carried too far. Nevertheless it seems not unlikely that the Arab revolutions will produce more sound and fury than lasting political change. Although leaders like Ben Ali and Mubarak have been driven out, the military and most of the old regime politicians largely remain in control of states like Tunisia and Egypt. Even Muammar Gaddafi may emulate Franz Josef and emerge victorious from a seemingly impossible situation. The emperor was in large part saved by foreign intervention; Gaddafi may be saved by a failure of the international community to intervene in support of the revolutionaries in Libya.
If the current Arab revolutionary wave does collapse like that of 1848, what will this mean for the West? Trying to make up for their decades of support for Arab dictators, Westerners have been shrill in their praise for the popular uprisings in the Arab world, although these words have not been followed by any action. If the much-trumpeted 'new Arab world' fails to emerge and the old regime withdraws its concessions and largely resumes power, will not the Arab people be disillusioned and even more angry? Despite the claims of some alarmist commentators, radical Islamists have not featured greatly in the present revolutionary outbreaks. However, if the promises of freedom and democracy for the Arab masses are not met, then angry young Arabs are going to be much more receptive to the anti-Western message of Islamic militants.
Words and no action from the West may turn the new Arab revolutionaries against the United States and its allies, but will a restoration of the old regime do the West much good either? The Arab dictators consider, not unreasonably, that they have been deserted by their former Western supporters in their hour of need. If the groups that supported the dictators, chiefly the military and the conservative politicians, manage to retain power in most of the Arab countries disturbed by revolution, will they ever trust the West again? Once the tame vassals of the United States and its allies, they seem more likely to take a more independent line in the future on issues such as Palestine, Lebanon, and Iran.
For Arabs, the current revolutionary movement may not in the end achieve any major lasting political changes. However, for the West its relations with the Arab world cannot help being substantially altered whichever side eventually emerges victorious. Neither the old regime nor the new revolutionaries are likely to trust the West when its words of support remain just empty promises.
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