Turkey in Libya: A New Front for Neo-Ottomanism?

The recent agreement between Turkey and the United Nations-backed government of Libya based in Tripoli includes a provision for sending Turkish troops to Libya if requested. Should that happen, these would be the first Turkish troops to go to that country in more than one hundred years.

Back in 1911 Libya was still a province of the Ottoman empire, but in that year it was invaded by Italian forces bent on imperial expansion. Outnumbered by Italian troops and warships - and facing the first use of aircraft in warfare - the Ottoman Turkish forces in Libya were soon driven from the coastal cities. With the support of the Arab tribes in the interior, the Ottomans then mounted a guerrilla war against the invaders. Among the Turkish officers advising the tribal forces were Enver Pasha, who would lead the Ottoman empire during the First World War, and Mustafa Kemal, who after that war would create the secular Turkish republic. In 1912 the Ottoman government made peace with the Italians, gave up all claims to Libya, and called its army officers home.

Today, more than a century later, there is the possibility of Turkish troops returning to Libya. Although recognized by the United Nations, the current Libyan government in Tripoli controls little more territory than the capital city itself. It is under threat from the advance of forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar, who rules eastern Libya. Haftar is supported by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while Turkey supports the Tripoli government and has now declared its readiness to send troops to defend it. The Italo-Ottoman war of 1911-12 saw the first use of aircraft in combat and the present war in Libya has seen the first use of armed drones by both sides in a conflict. Haftar has Chinese-built drones supplied by the UAE while the Tripoli government uses Turkish-built drones. Should Turkey actually send troops to Libya, this will almost certainly trigger a similar response from the opposing side, with Egyptian military intervention the most likely outcome.

To add to the dangerous mix that is Turkish relations with Libya, the recent agreement between Tripoli and Turkey also deals with offshore energy exploration and development in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Large offshore gas fields are believed to exist in the region and a co-operation agreement on their development has recently been made by countries including Greece, Egypt and Israel. Turkey was deliberately excluded from this group because it recognizes the Republic of Northern Cyprus, created after the island was invaded by Turkey in 1974, and claims that state has the right to any energy resources found of its coasts. Other countries only recognize the Republic of Cyprus, which claims all rights to energy development in Cypriot waters. Turkey has encouraged the Tripoli government to make extensive claims to an area for offshore energy development which if upheld would considerably limit Greek energy exploration south of Crete.

President Erdogan of Turkey has often been accused of 'neo-Ottomanism', that is, trying to revive Turkish influence in areas that were once part of the Ottoman empire. Turkish government officials have long claimed this is no more than a 'good neighbour' policy restricted to the exercise of economic and cultural 'soft power'. However, Turkey's actions since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011 have rather undermined this benign picture. Turkish readiness to use military intervention, 'hard power', in Syria has shown that influence can all too easily be converted into control. The possibility that a new front for military 'neo-Ottomanism' is opening up in Libya cannot be ruled out  and if it occurs it will put a serious strain on Turkey's relations with other countries, not least its supposed allies, such as Greece, within NATO.