The War on Terror: Eight Years and Counting.

As the eighth anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington DC on September 11, 2001, approaches, it may be time to take an overview of the current state of the 'war on terror' which those attacks provoked. The war on terror, or 'the long war' as it was newly designated in a largely unsuccessful rebranding exercise, also has other names. The American neo-conservatives see it as 'the clash of civilizations', with the Christian West, aided by the Jewish state of Israel, resisting the attacks of the Muslim hordes bent on its destruction. To the extreme Islamists, the conflict is also a defensive struggle, but in their view they are resisting 'Crusader and Zionist aggression' against the Muslim world.

Whatever it is called, the war on terror began in the United States in 2001 and any overview should start there. Wide-ranging security measures now make it unlikely that something similar to the 9/11 attacks could happen again, but the possibility of lower level attacks, by residents rather than outsiders, still remains. The large security apparatus built up in the USA in the last few years may be successful in discouraging terrorists, but in a war which is potentially endless, that apparatus may pose a threat to the long-term future of American liberty.

Although Europe has seen no major Islamist terror attacks in recent years, it remains under greater threat than the United States. The Muslim population of Europe, especially Western Europe, continues its relentless growth. Even if only a tiny proportion of that population is ready to assist terrorists, attacks on the scale of those previously carried out in Madrid and London may well occur. The most likely source of such an Islamist threat is North Africa, with the terrorists exploiting the cover provided by the large expatriate North African populations in countries such as Spain and France.

Africa is in many ways the new front in the war on terror. The United States has recognized this by setting up its Africa Command (AFRICOM), a new military command covering all of Africa except Egypt. The command has so far not found a suitable African country to house its headquarters, but the United States already has a large military base on the continent at Djibouti near the Horn of Africa. The principal hotbeds of Islamist militancy in Africa are Algeria, home of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and Somalia, where Al Shabaab is currently the leading group. AQIM has tried to expand its operations southwards into sub-Saharan Africa, but with only limited success. Al Shabaab so far has little influence outside central and southern Somalia, the pirates in the north of the country being ordinary criminals rather than ideological terrorists. So far the United States has avoided any large-scale military operations in Africa, preferring to support local forces in their efforts to suppress Islamist terrorism.

The Middle East - now usually taken as including South Asian states such as Afghanistan and Pakistan - remains the main area of operations in the war on terror. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains in stalemate at the moment. Despite optimistic talk to the contrary, it seems unlikely the current hardline Netanyahu government in Israel will make any concessions that might lead to lasting peace with the Palestinians. It has no need to do so. The old 'near enemies' of Israel are now largely no threat. Egypt and Jordan are close allies of America, while the Syrians, and even Hezbollah in Lebanon, are careful to avoid any further military conflict with Israel. Instead Israel prefers to concentrate its propaganda in the United States and elsewhere on the supposed existential threat posed to it by the 'distant enemy', the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The war in Iraq has become largely a low level civil war since the United States withdrew most of its combat troops into their bases in the country. The Iraqi government shows no sign of asking for American assistance no matter what terrorist attacks take place. Similarly, the United States is reluctant to offer aid which might drag it back into major combat operations in Iraq. Despite this situation, the United States shows little urgency in removing its forces from Iraq, even though it has promised to leave by 2011. Iraq offers a valuable, centrally-situated military base in the Middle East from which large US forces can threaten neighbouring states, above all Iran. Such an advantage is not to be given up quickly.

The issue of Iran's supposed efforts to develop nuclear weapons is not directly relevant to the war on terror, but will have an impact upon it. Should further sanctions against Iran escalate into a naval blockade to cut off its supply of gasoline, then Iran may well retaliate by encouraging increased terrorist attacks in Iraq and other countries. Should a naval blockade, in itself a warlike act, be followed by attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, then open war is likely to engulf the whole region, with the war on terror subsumed by the wider conflict.

The war against the Taliban in Afghanistan shows little sign of reaching any conclusion in the near future. Its overflow into neighbouring Pakistan has now largely been contained. However, many Muslims see America's increasingly direct involvement in Pakistan as part of a plot to gain control of that country's nuclear weapons. Pakistan, the only Muslim state with nuclear weapons, is to be disarmed, just as Iran, another leading Muslim state, is to be prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons. Only American forces and Israel are to have nuclear weapons in the Middle East.

In other parts of the world, Muslim insurgencies rumble on. Russia this year declared victory in its ten year struggle against Islamist rebels in Chechnya, but armed unrest continues in that region and the neighbouring areas of Dagestan and Ingushetia. In Southern Thailand and the southern islands of the Philippines local Muslim revolts show little sign of ending, but equally they pose no overall threat to the stability of those countries. The Muslim Uighurs of Xinjiang, China, continue to resist domination by the Han Chinese, but Western expressions of concern about their sufferings are quickly stilled by Chinese claims that the Uighurs are 'Islamist terrorists'.

As long as Western military forces continue to wage war within the Muslim world, the Islamist resisters will always be able to find enough support across that world to sustain low level military operations almost indefinitely. Western politicians and generals claim to be ready to take up the challenge of this 'long war', talking, for example, of remaining in Afghanistan for another twenty, thirty, even forty years. Whether voters in Western countries share this commitment is another matter. In any case, such plans for the future may soon be moot. If the United States, Israel, and certain European countries continue to escalate their hostile actions against Iran, war may break out with that country. If the whole Middle East is plunged into conflict, with dire consequences for both the region and the world, low level struggles against terrorists will quickly fade into insignificance.