Somali Piracy: The Beginning of the End?

It took the naval powers of Christian Europe three hundred years to defeat the Barbary corsairs of North Africa, with the new United States of America taking a leading role in the final victory in the early nineteenth century. Today's Muslim sea raiders from Africa, the Somali pirates, seem to have been beaten in a much shorter time, barely twelve months. From being a scourge of the sea routes in the Indian Ocean during the first half of 2011, they have now been reduced, it seems, to just a minor nuisance.

When the tempo of pirate attacks first began to decline in the summer of 2011, this was blamed on the monsoon season in the Indian Ocean. The seas were simply too rough for the pirates to take their small craft out hunting for prizes. When the monsoon ended and pirate attacks remained at a reduced level, a new explanation was put forward. The pirates had so many captured ships in their ports that priority was being given to ransom negotiations. Once the stock of prizes had been reduced, the pirates would put to sea once more. Ransoms were paid and ships released, but by the end of 2011 the number of pirate attacks had still not greatly increased.

By the spring of 2012 it seemed that there had been a definite and apparently lasting reduction in the level of Somali pirate activity, and their opponents were quick to take credit for this change. Commanders of the NATO, EU, and other international naval forces on patrol off Somalia claimed that their activities had restricted pirate operations. Similarly, ship owners said that the spread of anti-piracy measures on merchant ships, including the provision of armed guards, had made it much more difficult for the pirates to get on board their intended prey.

In the first half of 2012 five merchant ships have been captured by the Somali pirates, compared with sixteen in the first half of 2011. Nevertheless this much smaller number of prizes did include one major catch - the new Greek-owned tanker 'Smyrni', loaded with 135,000 tons of crude oil, which was captured on 10 May off the coast of Oman. Judging by past experience, the ship and its cargo will only be freed for a ransom of a least US $10 million. After months of little success, this one ship will bring substantial wealth to at least one group of Somali pirates.

It is generally accepted that whatever measures are taken against the Somali pirates at sea, their final defeat can only be assured when law and order are restored on land within Somalia. After years of turmoil, even this now seems within the realms of possibility. The government of the Puntland region of Somalia has recently taken military action against some pirate groups based in its territory. Meanwhile the most destabilising force in Somalia, the Islamist militants of al-Shabaab, are said to be facing final defeat by African Union forces in the south of the country. With order being restored ashore and maritime counter-measures apparently becoming more effective at sea, it might seem that Somali piracy is doomed. However, as some commentators have noted, the Somali pirates have been contained rather than defeated. If the international naval effort is reduced, Somali piracy may quickly stage a revival.

On several occasions in past centuries, European naval powers felt they had defeated the Barbary corsairs. However, when they had to withdraw their fleets to fight new wars elsewhere, the Barbary corsairs soon renewed their attacks on Christian shipping. Given the present increasingly tense political situation in the Middle East, particularly with regard to Syria and Iran, there is always the possibility that new conflicts in that region will lead to a reduction in naval patrols off Somalia and a revival of piracy there. At present we can only be cautiously hopeful that the Somali pirate menace has been beaten.