As the fall of Muamar Gadaffi seems increasingly inevitable, thoughts are turning to what kind of government the Libyan opposition will put in his place. Also worthy of consideration is how far the new Libya will fall under the sort of Western control that existed in the country before Gadaffi's revolution in 1969.
The United States, Britain and France, along with their NATO and other allies, have gone to considerable expense, in treasure rather than blood, to support the Libyan opposition and remove Gadaffi, despite having no United Nations mandate for regime change. Whatever their high-minded claims to be only acting to protect the Libyan people, they will now look for political and economic returns on their investment.
In 1943 the Italian colony of Libya was overrun by the British army. A British military administration was installed in Cyrenaica and Tripolitania, with the United States retaining use of various air bases. In the south of Libya, known as the Fezzan, French administrators were installed, running the area as an extension of France's existing North African colonies.
In 1949 the United Nations agreed that Libya should become an independent country, and in 1951 the kingdom of Libya came into being, ruled by King Idris. However, both Britain and the United States retained military bases in Libya.
Initially the bases brought much needed money into an impoverished country, but the situation changed after oil was discovered in Libya in 1959. With the French exit from Algeria in 1962, it seemed that Western colonialism in North Africa had come to an end. However, Western military bases remained in Libya until Gadaffi's bloodless coup in 1969.
In March 1970 the British gave up the RAF base at El Adem; in June the Americans left Wheelus air base; and in October Gadaffi expelled the last Italian settlers from Libya. For the next forty years Gadaffi would keep Libya firmly in the anti-Western camp in international affairs.
Now that Gadaffi seems on the verge of being consigned to the scrapheap of history, what spoils will be demanded by the victors? The Libyan opposition will set up a new government, but the NATO powers who backed the rebels will be the real victors.
Will the United States, Britain and France want new military bases in Libya? These would be useful to keep an eye on Egypt, where the new political setup after the fall of Mubarak still remains in flux. Canada has made its contribution to the NATO war effort against Gadaffi, and the Harper government has said it is looking to create a worldwide chain of Canadian military support bases. Might not Libya host one such base?
Military bases would probably be too provocative to certain sections of the Libyan opposition, especially the Islamists. Nevertheless it seems likely that the new, democratic Libya will quickly be overrun by Western civilian and military 'advisers', while Western oil companies and other businesses will be given economic opportunities in Libya that have largely been closed to them for the last forty years.
The new Libyan regime will have little choice but to give in to Western demands. After all, the West will only unfreeze Libya's financial assets held abroad if it gets a new Libyan government friendly to its interests. Whether this brave new world can be seen as a return to colonial exploitation by the West or as a boost for freedom and democracy in Libya depends on one's political viewpoint.
