In 2006 the United States launched two proxy wars against Islamist militants. Israel was to destroy Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Ethiopia was to crush the Islamic Courts Union in Somalia. Contrary to all expectations, Israel's attacks on Lebanon failed to destroy Hezbollah. However, in Somalia, the invading Ethiopians quickly defeated the Islamist militants and installed an internationally recognised Somali government in the capital Mogadishu.
Now, two years later, the Ethiopians are pulling out of Somalia, the Somali government is on the verge of collapse, and the Islamists seem likely to retake Mogadishu. Meanwhile Israel has launched a major offensive against the Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip in a determined effort to restore its reputation for military might which was undermined by its lacklustre performance in the 2006 Lebanon war.
Gaza is to be reduced to rubble because otherwise other Middle Eastern countries will think Israel is weak and they will try to destroy the Jewish state. This myth of Israeli vulnerability has a long history. It may have had some truth in the period up to 1967, but the Six Day War of that year showed Israel to be the most powerful military state in the Middle East, a position it has never since lost.
The idea that Israel suffered some sort of defeat in the 2006 Lebanon war that now needs to be redressed by a crushing victory in Gaza is also fanciful. Israel certainly failed to destroy Hezbollah in 2006 and its military operations were mismanaged. However, Hezbollah got the message. The organisation has not launched any attacks on Israel in the last two years. Israel fought for peace on its northern border and it achieved that result.
As to a wider threat which requires Israel to take tough military action, it simply does not exist. Of the Arab states which border Israel, Egypt and Jordan are totally subordinate to America and Israel; Lebanon's Hezbollah is making no attacks; and Syria has not dared to risk any direct military confrontation with Israel for more than a quarter of a century.
If the near abroad poses no threat to Israel, what of more distant countries? Iran's supposed nuclear threat to Israel has been exaggerated by American and Israeli commentators to suit their own agendas. If Iran wants nuclear weapons, the motive is self-defence, to discourage attacks by the United States and its allies, not to threaten other countries.
Thus, on one side, we have Israel attacking Gaza so it can boost its military reputation, even though the idea of Israeli vulnerability is a complete myth. On the other side, the Hamas militants are ready to provoke Israel and resist its forces because they believe in another myth, that of Muslim solidarity.
The idea of the Arab or wider Muslim 'street' rising up to overthrow their rulers if they do not suffort the oppressed Palestinians, in Gaza or the West Bank, is still aired by certain commentators despite its absurdity. As Trotsky said long ago, in the age of the machine gun, mob rule is dead. As long as the undemocratic but pro-Western rulers of countries like Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia retain the support of their security forces, what their populations think about Palestinian suffering is irrelevant.
If there is no chance of support for Hamas in the wider Muslim world, what of its particular friends? We are regularly warned that the evil alliance of Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran poses a threat not just to Israel and the Middle East, but to the whole world. Can Hamas at least expect help from its companions in evil? Apparently not. As already noted, both Hezbollah and Syria have no stomach for a military clash with Israel at the moment. Nor, despite its anti-Israel rhetoric, will Iran take any actions which might give the United States an excuse to launch a military attack on it.
Hamas in Gaza will go down to inevitable defeat still hoping vainly that the rest of the Muslim world will come to its aid. Israel will have shown its toughness once again, although it faces no serious military threat to its existence from any country in the Middle East. The people of Gaza will be the innocent victims, crushed by the weight of two myths, that of Muslim solidarity on one side and of Israeli vulnerability on the other.
