The Iraqi government has announced that its forces are beginning the final battle to retake Fallujah. Although close to the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, the town has been held by ISIS for almost two and a half years. Like the Iraqi recapture of Ramadi from ISIS at the end of 2015, the fight for Fallujah is expected to be prolonged and bloody, but few doubt that ISIS will be defeated.
Combined with ISIS defeats elsewhere in Iraq and in neighbouring Syria, the loss of Fallujah will be a major blow to the Sunni Islamist terror group. Perhaps even more worrying for ISIS has been the recent Iraqi successes at Hit and Rutba. In both towns it is claimed Irqi government forces were aided by Sunni tribesmen who had turned against ISIS. If the group can no longer rely on the support of Iraqi Sunnis, previously hostile to the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad, then it is indeed in deep trouble.
Optimists are talking about a rapid collapse of ISIS in both Syria and Iraq before the end of this year. The ISIS capital at Raqqa in Syria is already said to be under threat. Should the Iraqi recapture of Fallujah prove easier than expected, then there will be growing pressure to liberate Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, from ISIS control this year rather than wait until 2017 as previously planned. ISIS would certainly appear to be on the ropes, but it is unlikely to go down without a fight. Nevertheless, if its many enemies deliver the final knockout punch more quickly than expected, what will a post-ISIS Middle East look like?
No doubt many parties will rush to claim they played a major role in the defeat of ISIS. The United States and its allies will point to their two year bombing campaign against ISIS targets as a vital factor in ensuring victory. However, whatever the role of airpower, only ground forces can recapture towns and territory. The two principal victors will be the Shiites and the Kurds, both of whom will be looking to derive new advantages from their success.
In Syria the Shiite-linked victors will be the Alawite government of Bashir Assad, backed by Iran and Russia. In Iraq the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad will claim victory, once again with Iran as its chief backer. Despite its many sins, ISIS has been the most powerful Sunni militant group in the Middle East and its defeat by Shiite forces will give that side a major boost in the Sunni-Shiite struggle that increasingly dominates the region.
In addition, Saudi Arabia, the self-declared leader of Sunni Islam, has embarked on an internal reform programme that some see as a dangerous gamble. If it succeeds, it will bring about a major economic and social transformation of the kingdom. If it fails, the result could be internal disorder and even the fall of the House of Saud. Such a collapse would be a greater blow to Sunnis than the defeat of ISIS.
The other victors in the ground struggle against ISIS would be the Kurds. In both Syria and Iraq they have played a vital role in fighting ISIS, being particularly close to the United States and its Western allies. However, the long-term aim of the Kurds is to create their own state, and this goal makes their Western friends uneasy. The Kurds have been denied heavy weapons and even minor incidents, such as Canadian special forces personnel attaching Iraqi Kurdistan flags to their uniforms, have caused protests.
Yet if the Kurds are on the winning side against ISIS, they will certainly want to build upon their success. During the chaos caused by ISIS successes in the summer of 2014, the Kurds seized control of the Iraqi city of Kirkuk. If the Iraqi government recaptures Mosul from ISIS, it will surely want Kirkuk returned to its control as well. The Kurds are unlikely to agree to this. Which side would the West take in an Iraqi-Kurd conflict? Similarly, the Iraqi Kurds may increase their support for the revived Kurdish insurgency in south-east Turkey. What will the United States do if the Iraqi Kurds come into open conflict with Turkey, a major NATO ally?
The fall of ISIS would certainly be very welcome to the international community, but it is unlikely to bring peace and stability to the Middle East. Old conflicts will grow in importance while new ones will be created.
