After the tragedy of 9/11 new American bases for the 'war on terror' were set up around the Middle East. One of the more surprising sites was an old French Foreign Legion barracks in the small republic of Djibouti. This became the home of Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa, a unit of US Central Command. (In 2007-8 it will be transferred to the new US Africa Command.)
In fact this was an important strategic position. The United States possessed bases in the Persian Gulf, but it had previously had none in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden area. This region possesses a maritime choke point similar to the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf. This is Bab al Mandeb, the strait lying between Yemen to the north and Djibouti to the south, a maritime area where terrorist attacks could be made on shipping heading to and from the Suez Canal. The American warship USS Cole had already been attacked by al-Qaeda terrorists in Aden harbour in 2000, and a French tanker was also struck some time later off the coast of Yemen.
However, the terrorist danger was not just at sea. The area of responsibility of the US task force in Djibouti included all the countries of the Horn of Africa, including Kenya on its southern border. The US embassy in Kenya's capital Nairobi was one of the two American diplomatic missions in East Afica attacked by al-Qaeda in 1998.
The principal area of instability in the Horn of Africa is Somalia, a country which has not had a functioning central government since 1991. The common Western view of Somalia sees it as the lawless land of 'Black Hawk Down', the American military defeat in its capital Mogadishu in 1993. Yet the fact is that much of Somalia has enjoyed comparative peace since the central government collapsed sixteen years ago.
The north of the country is controlled by two autonomous states. In the actual Horn of Africa is Puntland, which declared autonomy in 1998, but is ready to rejoin a federal Somalia at some future date. In the north-west is Somaliland (covering the territory of the old colony of British Somaliland), which declared its independence in 1991. Although not recognised by any other country, Somaliland cherishes its independence and may be reluctant to join a reconstituted Somalia.
Somaliland and Puntland have been largely peaceful in recent years, although ports in the latter state have been used as bases for pirates. It is southern Somalia, especially in and around the capital Mogadishu, that has seen the most violence since 1991, with warfare between local clans who often receive arms and other support from foreign countries.
The United Nations approved the creation of a Somali Transitional Government (STG), initially outside the country, with the aim of restoring peace and unity to Somalia as soon as possible. By 2006 the STG had finally established itself in Somalia, holding a small area centred on the town of Baidoa near the border with Ethiopia.
Meanwhile the warring clans of southern Somalia had finally been subdued by the forces of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC). This Islamist body brought peace and order to Mogadishu and other areas for the first time in years. However, the UIC's similarity to the Taliban movement which took over Afghanistan in the 1990s alarmed the United States, especially as there were also claims that the UIC had links with al-Qaeda. Some of the 1998 embassy bombers were said to be hiding in southern Somalia.
When the UIC seemed about to move against the STG in Baidoa, the United States encouraged Ethiopia, its principal ally in the region, to intervene in Somalia, despite the long history of enmity between Somalis and Ethiopians. In December 2006 Ethiopian forces swept across southern Somalia, defeating the UIC and installing the STG in Mogadishu. The United States provided direct assistance by mounting air attacks, probably co-ordinated from Djibouti, on supposed al-Qaeda bases in southern Somalia.
After their victory the Ethiopians claimed they were anxious to withdraw from Somalia and hand over security to STG forces and a peace-keeping force from the African Union. Only a few troops for the latter force have arrived in Mogadishu and Ethiopian forces continue to battle Islamist and clan forces in the capital. Recent attempts to hold a national reconciliation conference in Mogadishu have been hindered by the continued fighting. Now the United Nations has joined the STG and the Ethiopians in blaming such trouble on arms being supplied to the rebels by Eritrea.
Similar allegations have been made against Eritrea in relation to the arming of Somali rebels in the Ogaden region of south-east Ethiopia. This has long been an area bitterly disputed between Somalia and Ethiopia. In 1977 Somalia invaded and 'liberated' the Ogaden, but in the following year the Ethiopians drove out the invaders and took back the province.
Despite this Ethiopian success, the majority of the Ogaden's population are ethnic Somalis and they continue to resent being ruled by the Ethiopian government in Addis Ababa. The bloody raid by Ogaden Somali rebels on a Chinese oil company camp at Abole in April 2007 gave notice that the rebels continue to be an active and dangerous force. One reason the Ethiopians invaded Somalia was because they feared that the UIC would stir up the Ogaden Somalis, but this may be happening anyway.
The upsurge of fighting in the Ogaden may well be another stage in the spreading of conflict across the Horn of Africa which commentators have long feared. First Somalia, now the Ogaden. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of being active behind the scenes in both places. How long before the border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which raged between 1998 and 2000, breaks out again? If Ethiopia has to fight on three fronts, how long will it be before that country calls for more American aid than can be provided by the task force in Djibouti?
